New Balkans Wars on the Horizon - International Peace/War

New Balkans Wars on the Horizon
by Dr. Pyotr Iskenderov via reed - Global Research Friday, Feb 12 2010, 4:05am
international / peace/war / other press

Part II

“If Milorad Dodik (Prime Minister of Republika Srpska) decides to hold a referendum on separation, I will send the troops to divide the region inhabited by the Bosnian Serbs”,- the Croatian President said, adding that in case of success, a sovereign state of Bosnian Serbs will 'seize [cease] to exist'. He made the announcement during an informal press-conference in Zagreb on January 18.

A military campaign against Banjaluka may be held simultaneously with an armed action by Kosovo`s Albanian authorities against the city of Kosovska Mitrovica and Serbian communities in Northern Kosovo. In this case the US, NATO and the EU will manage a complete separation of Serbian territories.

The Serbian Republic will be surrounded by hostile states and thus will no longer be able to carry out independent foreign policy. The defeat of the Kosovo and Bosnian Serbs will become Russia`s biggest loss in the Balkans over the past two decades and will harm Moscow's attempts to play an active role in other strategically important regions in Eurasia.

The first reaction of Serbia and Russia to such rude interference of the Croatian leader into affairs of the neighboring state was surprisingly reserved. Serbia's President Boris Tadic made an attempt to respond to the remarks made by his Croatian counterpart at the UN Security Council meeting on Kosovo on January 22. But he commented on the issue not during his main speech (though parallels between what was going on then in Bosnia and Herzegovina and in Kosovo were more than obvious). He spoke during the debates because he found such kind of issues could not be discussed during official reports. Mr. Tadic also met the UN Chief Ban Ki-moon to tell him that Mesic`s 'dangerous words were unwelcome in political discourse' but immediately noted that Serbia did not want to worsen relations with Croatia.

Such peace-loving rhetoric was accepted in Zagreb. Croatia's Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor told journalists that Serbia and Croatia should abandon debates and work together to develop neighborly relations. However, the Prime Minister did not disavow the President's announcement.

Russia's reaction is still too vague. Summing up the results of 2009 at the press-conference on January 22 in Moscow, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov commented on Mr. Mesic`s announcement: “We insist that all the sides involved respect the Dayton Agreement and avoid the use of force”. (1)

Meanwhile, the way the situation is developing in the region in recent months proves quite the contrary: the West and the leaders of Sarajevo are definitely going to undermine the Dayton agreement. Two rounds of talks held by the heads of the Bosnian political parties in October 2009 at a NATO base in Butmir outside Sarajevo, revealed the the western strategy toward Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Bosnian Serbs are demanded to abdicate their authorities settled in the Dayton Peace Agreement. Though formally Russia is a member of the Dayton Agreement Peace Implementation Council, it did not take part in the discussions in Butmir. So, it would be a fatal mistake to expect the US, EU and NATO to abandon their new political course. It would also mean to be inexcusably weak in regard to Russia's interests in Bosnia and Herzegovina and in the Balkans in general.

It was not accidentally that the International Crisis Group, which traditionally deals with promoting the western political propaganda in conflict regions, in every detail commented on the future of the Balkans a few months before the recent events. Experts in the Group believe that Moscow and Belgrade remain the West`s major rivals in the region because “an international approach to the Balkans is dominated by concern over Serbia`s reaction to the independence of Kosovo”. In their opinion, Russia “has become stronger to oppose to the Western policy it sees hostile to its interests”. (2)

Under these circumstances, Moscow should better revise its policy in the Balkans. Russian diplomats should no longer view the Dayton agreements as too weak to withstand political attacks. This all will make it logical to put in question political status of Bosnia and Herzegovina. This approach will help Moscow no longer be an outsider in Bosnia and launch a series of international talks on territorial, political and ethno-cultural problems in the Balkans, where peoples and their interests are in jeopardy. Taking into consideration intentions of the West to put an end to the Serbian Orthodox community in the Balkans, revision of the existing borders in the conflict regions may become the only way for Russia to defend its interests. As of today, there are at least three self-proclaimed states which statuses are being doubted: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and Macedonia. Their territorial and administrative revision could become the least painful way to avoid new wars in the Balkans.

It is remarkable that recently the authorities of Sarajevo have been urging Russia to contribute to the 'implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement', the Bosniak Muslim member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Haris Silajdzic, said at the meeting with the Russian special envoy for Kosovo, Alexander Botsan-Kharchenko. And this is a very disturbing sign because Silajdzic has long been known for his extremist views about Republika Srpska. The majority of people in Western Europe cannot but be aware that the Bosnian Serbs remain the only counterbalance to radical pan-Islamic tendencies in Bosnia and Herzegovina. And this it what gives Russia the right to boost its activities in the Balkans.

Notes:
1. http://www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf

2. Bosnia`s Incomplete Transition: Between Dayton and Europe. Sarajevo-Brussels, 2009. P.14

Part 1 of this article:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=17386

© 2010 Pyotr Iskenderov, Strategic Culture Foundation

BELGRADE -- Ministry for Kosovo State Secretary Oliver Ivanović has reacted to statements coming from Kosovo Albanian politicians regarding Serbia's southern area.

Ivanović called on the international community to react to the Kosovo Albanian assembly in Priština President Jakup Krasniqi's statement that ethnic Albanians in the municipalities of Bujanovac and Preševo were "ready to join Kosovo".

"Serbia will not exchange something that is hers for something else that is hers, nor is the concept of partition and exchange of territory on the table at all from our side. We have absolutely rejected that idea," he stated on Wednesday.

Ivanović also said he was worried that the Kosovo politicians' warmongering did not meet with reaction from the international community officials in the province.

"They seem to be forgetting that such or similar moves in the past caused a lot of complications, I won't say, conflicts. Therefore, the least we can expect is for the EU and KFOR and NATO representatives, for the representatives of UNMIK and EULEX, to condemn this and make it clear to Jakup Krasniqi and to everyone else, that these stories should not be placed in public that they are damaging and dangerous," said Ivanović.

Serbia's stance on Feith plan unchanged

Ivanović said on Thursday that early local elections could be held in Kosovska Mitrovica at the end of April, or the beginning of May, "which would make completely insubstantial the plan of Chief of International Civilian Office (ICO) Peter Feith for integration of northern Kosovo".

"Feith's plan for integration of the north of Kosovo into the interim Kosovo institutions has no chance to succeed, but it could provoke tensions and unnecessary conflicts in the north, which is why Serbia insists on the soonest possible elections in Kosovska Mitrovica," Ivanović told the Serbian state broadcaster RTS.

© 2010, B92

There is a cost to everything! It seems that NATO/EU/US apply pressure on isolated and persecuted Serbs in order to gauge the response from Russia and China.

Can Russia and China afford to ABANDON their staunch and traditional ALLY, Serbia, any longer?

The last occasion Serbia required support from its allies saw Russia and China cower and withdraw with their tails between their legs -- pathetic!

Neither nation could afford a repeat performance of that disgraceful and WEAK effort today -- the reasons are many and obvious.

I would remind the world that Indonesia ceased to (regularly) persecute their ethnic Chinese community after China threatened to invade and protect the Chinese community from further victimisation and PERSECUTION. Serbia need only OPENLY request assistance from its allies, Russia and China, according to international LAW, in order to receive it!

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